Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commi sion if you sign up through our links. Read our for more information. After at home over the weekend, the 23-13 Yankees will host the Houston Astros for another three-game Yankee Stadium set. The Stros have yet to work out of their , sitting at 12 Matt Joyce Jersey -22 on the year after losing a home series to Seattle this past weekend. However, Houstons problems have mainly been on the mound, and Justin Verlander hopes he can help alleviate some of those i sues as he makes his fourth start of 2024. Astros vs. Yankees Prediction (7:05 p.m. ET, TBS) Explore More The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer has made three reasonably good starts, allowing only four earned runs acro s 17 innings. However, I think hes been mostly lucky. Verlander boasts an uber-low BABIP (.239) and an uber-high strand rate (93%), two numbers that should regre s toward averages (.300 and 72%), leading to plenty of more earned runs. His underlying profile still leaves much to be desired. His strikeout rate is down (19%), his walk rate is up (10%) and his ground-ball rate has plummeted (32%), leading to a mostly pedestrian batted-ball profile. I believe Verlander is overvalued entering Tuesdays start, partially explained by the difference between his actual indicators (2.08 ERA, 4.35 FIP) and expected ones (3.82 xERA, 4.70 xFIP). Juan Soto lead the Yankees to a sweep of the Tigers. AP Meanwhile, Luis Gil is technically undervalued by his expected indicators (3.19 ERA, 2.29 xERA), mainly because hes a strikeout machine behind a lively upper-90s fastball (40 strikeouts in 31 innings this season). However, Gils questionable command and control of his electric arsenal (20 walks, 93 Location+ mark) could bite him against the ever-disciplined Astros (17% strikeout rate, lowest among MLB lineups; 10% swinging-strike rate, third). Gil wants to mi s bats and the Astros wont make poor swing decisions. Both these lineups are top-notch. Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank fourth in wRC+ (120), while the Astros rank eighth (108). Between two elite lineups and two questionable pitchers, Im banking on a higher-scoring ballgame on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Read about the Learn all about Juan Soto could take advantage of fly-ball Verlander with the short porch in right field, while Yordan Alvarez might draw four walks against Gil. Im a little scared of these two rested bullpens. But while New Yorks relievers have been lights out (2.27 ERA, first among MLB bullpens), Houstons has been a disaster (4.44 ERA, 21st), so late-game run production wont be entirely out of the cards. Ill bet the Over 8.5 (-112) available at FanDuel, a number thats slowly ticked up since the markets opened. Astros vs. Yankees Pick Over 8.5 (-112, ) Brandon Marsh Jersey